Friday, August 27, 2010

Summer of Simmer Update: Counting Down the Heat Parade;
4 3 2 1 Days to Record Hottest Washington Summer

Monday, Aug. 30, 5:30 PM Update: Today's preliminary high of 96° brings the August average to an even 80.0°. If Tuesday averages at least 78° (for example, 88°/68°), the month will end up at 80.0°. An average of 81.5° (95°/68°), as forecast, would bring it up to 80.1°. That would tie the 9th hottest August.
Observed
Daily high/low: 96/73
Aug. average: 80.0
Summer average: 81.2
90°+ days: 56

Forecast
Aug. 31 95/68
Aug. average: 80.1
Summer average: 81.2
Avg. daily high: 90.3
90°+ days: 57
Monday, Aug. 30, 4 PM Update: Temperature has been 95° for 2 consecutive hours.

Monday, Aug. 30, 2 PM Update: As of 2 pm, the high is 95°.

Monday, Aug. 30, 1 PM Update: The temperature hit 92° by noon and has risen another 2° in the last hour, so the forecast high of 96° is well within range. This is now the 56th day with 90° or higher temperatures.

The morning low of 73° was 2° above the forecast.

Sunday, Aug. 29 Update
Observed
Daily high/low: 92/70
Aug. average: 79.9
Summer average: 81.2
90°+ days: 55

Forecast
Aug. 30 96/71
Aug. 31 95/68
Aug. average: 80.0
Summer average: 81.2
Avg. daily high: 90.3
90°+ days: 57
Saturday, Aug. 28 Update If the forecast temperatures are met or exceeded for the next 3 days, the old record hottest summer will be beaten by an amount equal to the range of the previous 13 hottest summers.
Observed
Daily high/low: 89/68
Aug. average: 79.8
Summer average: 81.2

Forecast
Aug. 29 92/67
Aug. 30 96/68
Aug. 31 96/69
Aug. average: 80.0
Summer average: 81.2
Avg. daily high: 90.3
Original (Aug. 27) post:
Today's high temperature at Washington of 83° as of 5 pm is 2° below the 30-year climatological average, but the summer average to date of 81.2° is still well above the old record hottest summer. Even if temperatures were to remain average for the next 4 days, the seasonal average would still come out to 81.0°, a full degree above the 1980 record.

On the other hand, the forecast indicates that the lower 90s will return as early as Sunday, with mid to upper 90s likely before the month and season end on Tuesday. Plugging in the forecast temperatures, the summer average will finish right where it is now. This would be a greater margin than the difference between the current hottest and 10th hottest summers.

The expected 3 days of 90°+ temperatures, plus an additional 2 days extending into the beginning of September, would bring the yearly total to 59, tying the second highest annual number of 90°+ days.

Not only will this summer be the first season ever to average above 80°, but it will be the first time that the average daily high has been above 90°, eclipsing the 89.4° in 2002. If August averages 80° or higher (It's likely to be 79.9° after today.), this will also be the first time 3 consecutive months have averaged at least 80°.

Stay tuned as we count down to the record through Tuesday.

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